Just caught that April nat gas futures jumped 6% on Friday - hitting a one-month high. The whole thing is tied to the Middle East situation and what it could mean for global LNG supplies. Apparently Qatar's Ras Laffan facility (the world's largest nat gas export hub) got hit by a drone attack and shut down. That's about 20% of global LNG production offline, which is pretty significant.

The geopolitical risk is real here - if the Strait of Hormuz gets disrupted, we could see a major supply crunch. That would definitely push US nat gas exports higher since domestic production hasn't been hit hard by the conflict. Meanwhile, European nat gas prices already spiked to a 3-year high earlier this week on the same concerns.

But there's pushback too. US production is sitting near record levels at 113.6 bcf/day, and the EIA just bumped up their 2026 nat gas production forecast to 109.97 bcf/day. More supply coming online is bearish for prices. Plus, warmer weather is expected across the eastern US through early March, which would cut heating demand - another headwind.

On the inventory side, last week's draw was -132 bcf, bigger than the -124 bcf consensus, so that's supportive. But nat gas stockpiles are still running about 7% above year-ago levels. Feels like we've got competing forces here - supply disruption fears pushing prices up, but rising US production and mild weather keeping a lid on how high they can go.