U.S. April ADP employment data significantly exceeded market expectations: the private sector added 109k jobs that month, not only far surpassing the revised 61k in March but also higher than the market consensus of 99k, marking the largest increase since January 2025, nearly 15 months ago.

This data quickly reversed market expectations for rate cuts. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in June has surged to 94.2%, with the chance of rate cuts dropping to only 5.8%, and the probability of maintaining rates for the rest of the year exceeding 70%.
Interest rate swap markets are even more extreme, with the market pushing the timing of rate cuts to early 2028, and some futures prices indicate traders are even betting on the Fed possibly raising rates first in 2027. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by about 5 basis points.
From asset performance, the better-than-expected data reinforce a stronger dollar trend, while gold and silver prices come under pressure and decline.
Overall, the stronger-than-expected employment data reinforce expectations of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy, but it also weakens the dovish logic for the Fed to cut rates within the year.
Against the complex backdrop of high inflation, geopolitical conflicts, and tariff policies, the market is rapidly digesting a more hawkish Fed policy path. #ADP就业超预期降息再推后