I've recently been looking at LSTs and re-staking again. To be honest, returns don't just fall from the sky: some come from basic staking, but a lot are actually from "people willing to pay for security/liquidity/narrative," or pushing risks further out. The risks are pretty straightforward: the same collateral being layered multiple times, and when something goes wrong, it's not just a withdrawal but a collective collapse; plus the old issues like smart contract bugs, oracle problems, and operational permissions. After dealing with many bridges, I’m especially sensitive to "pseudo-stability."

I set a rule for myself: when I see returns suddenly improve, I first assume they are selling risk, and I wait a few days to see how it plays out on the chain. Recently, there are always people interpreting large transfers and unusual movements in exchange hot and cold wallets as smart money... I’ve been led astray by that before, but I later realized many of those are just rebalancing, market making, or risk management operations—things you and I might not think of. Anyway, I’d rather earn a little less, take my time to confirm, and sleep better than lose everything.