#CLARITY法案推进受阻

I think the resistance to this bill is bigger than everyone expects right now, and whether it can successfully break through is really hard to say. The opposition from the banking industry alliance is not just for show; the “member rewards” provisions in the bill do in fact touch the core interests of banks. Once these are loosened, even if stablecoins cannot pay interest, they can still attract deposits indirectly through activities, cashback, and similar means, which is a significant blow for small and mid-sized banks. While the two parties have reached a compromise text, this kind of middle-ground solution leaves both sides unhappy: Democrats feel the restrictions are too strict, while Republicans worry about excessive regulation. The internal disagreements are actually much larger than they look on the surface. Whether the momentum for cooperation can be sustained depends on the upcoming bargaining.

The impact of the stablecoin policy being implemented is also not as straightforward as everyone thinks. For traditional finance, even if the bill restricts passive interest, as long as stablecoins can circulate compliantly, they will still divert bank users and funds—especially for small and mid-sized banks that rely on demand deposits—so long-term pressure will still remain. For the crypto market, the bill also isn’t a 100% positive development. It adds strict regulatory thresholds for stablecoins, and many smaller and mid-sized stablecoin projects may be directly delisted or pushed out. Market activity will likely concentrate on leading compliant coin types, which in the short term could actually worsen volatility.

Market predictions currently put the probability of implementation within the year above 60%, but I think that figure is a bit optimistic. The banking industry’s opposition will keep building up momentum, and with the U.S. midterm elections approaching, politicians may not be willing to take risks on such a sensitive issue. The pace of advancing the bill is very likely to be slowed down, or it could even be shelved entirely. For ordinary users like us, it’s best not to jump to conclusions too early—pause and observe clearly first, and don’t let market sentiment carry you away.