#Gate广场五月交易分享 Bitcoin Market Analysis: The Bulls Have Reached Their Limit!

BTC has rebounded from lows and broken above the 80k mark. Many retail investors are celebrating the return of the bull market, rushing to chase longs and heavily buy the dip, fearing they might miss out on the new wave of market profits.
But a calm analysis through technical chart structures and historical bull-bear cycle patterns reveals: this is merely a corrective rebound during a bear market decline, a typical trap to lure in long positions, and definitely not a trend reversal. The current rally is just an opportunity to free trapped positions at high levels and for bears to position themselves for a high-level short entry. Blindly chasing longs will only turn investors into market harvesters again.

1. Short-term Market: The rebound hits a critical resistance, upward space is fully locked
This round of BTC’s rebound from lows has pushed close to 83,000, hitting a key resistance level. It coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend, which is also the dense lower boundary zone of the previous long-term sideways trapped positions.
This level faces dual strong selling pressure: the previous 80k–90k trapped chips are now in a position to be unlocked, with strong profit-taking willingness, continuously suppressing further upward movement;
In bear market rebounds, the 61.8% retracement level has always been the ceiling for rebounds, rarely broken through strongly in one go.
From volume perspective, this rebound has seen no influx of new capital, only driven by existing funds grouping together, with volume expansion missing, indicating no real main force building positions, just short-term emotional speculation.
In simple terms: the 80k–84,000 range is the current market’s red line of resistance. The upside potential is extremely limited, and the risk of a downward pullback has quietly increased.

2. Cycle Outlook: The 2026 bear market is far from over, don’t be fooled by short-term rebounds
Setting aside short-term candlestick fluctuations, from the underlying logic of BTC’s ten-year bull-bear cycle, there is no condition for a bottoming and bull run at present.
Reviewing the three complete past bear markets, they follow a fixed pattern: an average decline period of about 54 weeks, with overall drops exceeding 80%. The current decline from the 2025 high to now, regardless of duration or magnitude, has not yet reached the standard bottom of past bear markets. Based on cycle projections, the bear market will last at least another five months before ending, and the true bottom has not yet arrived.
Many people make a fatal mistake: mistaking a rebound within a bear market for the start of a bull run. History has proven countless times that every strong rebound in a bear market is just a buildup for a larger subsequent decline. The current lively market is just fog obscuring the view; the overall downward cycle trend has never changed.

3. Practical Trading Strategy: Don’t chase high, short on rallies, stick to bear market logic
After clarifying the market’s essence, the trading approach becomes very clear: avoid emotional FOMO, only pursue high-probability trades. Firmly do not chase longs above 80,000 or blindly add to positions on rallies. Once the false bullish phase ends, a quick pullback will lack support, and chasing high will only result in standing on the sidelines.
The ideal shorting zone is during rallies in the 80,000–84,000 range, offering excellent risk-reward ratios; set reasonable stop-loss levels above key resistance, avoiding forced trades.
Below, the first support is around 74,000–75,000, with a secondary support at 68,000–70,000. As the market pulls back, it’s likely to gradually test lower levels, possibly even revisiting previous lows.
Maintain a light position, respect the volatile bear market, avoid heavy holdings and all-in bets, strictly manage risk, and never fight the cycle trend.

4. Final Words
The biggest trap in the crypto world is being blinded by short-term rebounds during a bear market, mistaking rebounds for reversals. Candlestick charts can deceive, emotions can hype, but the laws of historical cycles, chip structures, and capital logic never lie. The current BTC rally is just a fleeting correction, not a sign of a return to a bull market. Don’t be swept away by market impatience; see the big picture, refuse to chase highs, and during rallies and cycles, all counter-trend euphoria will eventually return to fundamentals.