Watched the dollar get undercut pretty hard this week. The DXY dropped 0.29% as stocks bounced on that Iran news, though it did recover a bit after some solid US jobs data came through. The February ADP showed employers added 63k jobs (beat the 50k expectation), and the ISM services index popped +2.3 to 56.1 - the strongest expansion in 3.5 years. Interesting thing though: the prices paid component actually fell to 63.0, lowest in 11 months, which is why the Fed's probably staying patient for now. Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack basically said policy could sit tight for a while.



The real story is the currency undercut happening across the board. EUR/USD jumped 0.23% as the dollar weakened, helped by Eurozone data showing unemployment hit a record low of 6.1% and PPI came in stronger than expected. Meanwhile USD/JPY fell 0.42% after the yen rallied - Japan's consumer confidence hit a 6.75-year high and their finance minister hinted at intervention if the yen moves get too wild. The Nikkei tanked 3% though, which sparked some safe-haven buying for the yen.

Gold and silver had a mixed day. Gold was up 11 basis points but silver down slightly. The weaker dollar helped, and honestly the geopolitical tension with Iran launching drones across the Middle East is keeping safe-haven demand alive. Energy concerns are real too - Qatar's LNG facility shut down, which has people worried about inflation. But the rally in stocks and those hawkish Fed comments about holding policy steady pulled some gains back. Still seeing solid demand from central banks though - China's PBOC reserves jumped 40k ounces to 74.19 million in January, marking 15 straight months of buying. Gold ETF longs hit a 3.5-year high last week, so fund interest remains strong despite the chop.
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