Just been watching the coffee futures getting hammered lately. Arabica hit a 15-month low last week, and robusta just touched a 6.5-month bottom on Monday. The whole market's pretty bearish right now.

Brazil's the main story here. Their crop agency Conab just put out a forecast showing 2026 production jumping 17% year-over-year to a record 66.2 million bags. That's a huge supply increase coming. On top of that, they've been getting solid rainfall - Minas Gerais (their biggest growing region) got way above-average rain recently, so the crop outlook keeps improving.

Vietnam's also flooding the market with robusta. Their January exports surged 38% compared to last year, hitting 198k metric tons. For the full year, they're on track for 1.76 million metric tons of production, which is a 4-year high. When the world's largest robusta producer is ramping up exports like that, it obviously pressures prices.

One bright spot: Colombia's production is down hard, fell 34% year-over-year to just 893k bags in January. That's supporting prices a bit since they're the second-biggest arabica producer. But it's not enough to offset what's happening in Brazil and Vietnam.

ICE inventories have been recovering too, which is another headwind. Arabica stocks climbed back up in early January after hitting multi-month lows, and robusta followed the same pattern. Higher inventories generally mean less urgency to buy.

Overall, looks like we're in a supply-heavy environment for the next several months. Brazil's record crop is the game-changer here.