Just caught something interesting in the latest fund manager survey that caught a lot of people off guard. For the first time in literally two decades, professional money managers are saying corporations are spending way too much on capital expenditures. And we're talking about a major shift in sentiment that happened in just the last few months.

The data is pretty striking when you think about it. Since November 2022, AI-related stocks have accounted for roughly 90% of all the S&P 500's capex growth. That's not just a trend, that's basically the entire market's investment story right now. But here's where it gets interesting - money managers are starting to react to what feels like an unsustainable pace.

You're seeing this play out in real time. The big hyperscalers like Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft - the companies literally building out all the AI infrastructure - are all down year to date. They're underperforming the broader market index, which is a pretty significant shift from where we were even six months ago.

What's driving this skepticism? Investors are getting nervous about whether all these massive data center buildouts and AI infrastructure investments are actually going to generate returns that justify the spending. It's one thing to invest heavily in growth. It's another thing entirely when you start questioning whether you'll ever see that money come back.

If you're trying to react to this potential bubble and want to reposition your portfolio, the analysis suggests looking at completely different areas of the market. International stocks through funds like VXUS, value-focused plays through VTV, or bonds via BND have all been outperforming the AI mega-cap stocks this year. Vanguard's outlook actually suggests that value stocks, international developed markets, and high-quality fixed income have stronger risk-return profiles over the next five to ten year calendar.

Now, this doesn't mean the AI story is dead. New breakthroughs could easily shift sentiment back in favor of these companies. But if you're looking to hedge against bubble risk, having exposure to value, international, and bonds could be a smart diversification move. Markets move fast based on new information, so it's worth keeping your calendar marked for any major announcements from these companies.