So prediction markets are having a major moment right now. DraftKings is pushing into them, Robinhood just rolled them out to customers, and everyone's talking about Polymarket potentially going public. The vibe on Wall Street is definitely bullish on this sector.

Here's the thing though - I keep seeing this pattern repeat. When a new investment theme gets hot, a bunch of companies rush to IPO before the window closes. Tesla proved EVs could work, so suddenly every startup with a battery pack was filing S-1s. Rivian and Lucid went public with huge fanfare. Remember how that turned out? Their stocks cratered, and we saw bankruptcies left and right - Fisker, Nikola, and others just disappeared.

I'm not saying Polymarket won't be successful. The company clearly has product-market fit and is in the right place at the right time. But here's what I've learned: the companies that IPO during the hype cycle aren't always the ones that win long-term. Too many go public before they're actually ready, just riding the wave of investor enthusiasm for whatever the hot narrative is that quarter.

If Polymarket does IPO in 2026, my take is to let the initial prediction market bubble play out first. Watch how it trades after the first few months when the retail FOMO dies down. That's probably a better entry point than catching the IPO fever. History suggests that patience tends to beat chasing momentum in these situations.

The prediction market space has real potential, no doubt. But being early and being right are two very different things in investing.