Just caught cocoa taking another hit - March NY futures dropped 3.46% and London cocoa fell even harder at 4.61% on Thursday. We're now looking at 2+ year lows on both exchanges, which is pretty wild considering the run-up we saw before. The whole grinding symbol of weakness in this market is showing up everywhere. European cocoa grindings fell 8.3% year-over-year in Q4, way worse than the 2.9% decline people expected, and it's the worst Q4 in over a decade. Barry Callebaut, basically the world's largest chocolate maker, just reported a 22% drop in cocoa division sales volume.

What's really weighing on prices is this perfect storm of supply abundance and demand just not there. Global cocoa stocks are up 4.2% year-over-year, inventories hit a 4-month high, and forecasts are showing massive surpluses ahead. Nigeria's ramping up exports too, which isn't helping. The only real support is coming from projected production drops in Nigeria for next season and some tightening expected down the road, but for now the supply overhang is just too much. Chocolate consumers clearly aren't willing to pay the premium prices anymore.