On May 8th, "Federal Reserve spokesperson" Nick Timiraos stated that four months ago, a major issue facing the Federal Reserve was whether to continue cutting interest rates to support what appeared to be a fragile labor market. Now, that issue no longer exists. The labor market has stabilized, and due to tariffs and the Iran conflict, inflation is shifting from a previous decline to a resurgence.

The April non-farm payroll report highlighted this change in outlook and signaled that when assessing the current stance of the Fed, which has firmly held steady, the market's focus will clearly shift to inflation data. April's hiring activity remained robust, the unemployment rate stayed unchanged, and income growth remained solid—all of which are insufficient reasons to cut rates.

As the labor market provides the Fed with room to wait, the next step in policy discussion will be when and how to shift to a "neutral" stance—meaning the possibility of rate hikes and cuts becoming roughly equal—and the answer may depend almost entirely on future inflation data. #Gate广场五月交易分享