Looking back at that Friday when the dollar got hammered - the index dropped 0.35% on the back of a really disappointing US payroll report. February nonfarm payrolls actually fell by 92,000 jobs, which caught everyone off guard since expectations were for a 55,000 gain. That was the worst monthly decline in four months. Unemployment ticked up to 4.4% too, so the labor market clearly softened more than people anticipated. The only bright spot in the employment data was hourly earnings, which came in stronger than expected at 0.4% month-over-month and 3.8% year-over-year.

What's interesting is how the Fed officials were actually dovish in their Friday morning quotes during that session. Christopher Waller basically said the Iran situation wouldn't cause sustained inflation, which gave some support to the dollar despite the weak payroll numbers. But then you had Beth Hammack and Susan Collins both signaling they wanted to keep rates on hold for a while as inflation cools down. That kind of messaging usually pressures the dollar since it hints at future rate cuts. The equity market selloff that day actually helped the dollar a bit since people were seeking safety.

Meanwhile, gold and silver absolutely ripped higher - gold gained 1.58% and silver jumped 2.59%. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East was the main driver, with crude oil hitting 2.5-year highs. People were rotating into precious metals as a hedge against both the war premium in energy costs and the possibility that inflation could spike. You also had the PBOC continuing to accumulate gold reserves, which added institutional bid under the market. By Friday, with Trump's hard line comments on Iran negotiations, the safe-haven bid just accelerated even more.