Just noticed cocoa futures are getting absolutely hammered right now. NY cocoa hit a 2.5-year low today and London cocoa touched a 2.75-year low. The whole thing's coming down because buyers are basically refusing to pay the official prices anymore, especially with Ghana already slashing what they pay farmers by almost 30% for next season.

The supply side is looking brutal. We're staring at a potential 287k MT surplus for 2025/26 according to forecasts, and ICE inventories just hit a 4+ month high. Meanwhile, demand is getting crushed - chocolate makers are struggling because consumers won't pay those premium chocolate prices. Barry Callebaut reported a 22% drop in cocoa division sales volume last quarter, and European cocoa grinding fell 8.3% year-over-year. That's the lowest Q4 in 12 years.

What's interesting is the growing conditions in West Africa are actually pretty favorable right now, which means we could see even more cocoa hitting the market. Farmers are reporting bigger, healthier pods compared to last year. Nigeria's also ramping up exports. On the flip side, cocoa shipments to Ivory Coast ports are actually down 3% this season, which is providing a tiny bit of support.

Long story short - supply is abundant, demand is weak, and nobody wants to pay these prices. This cocoa selloff looks like it's got more room to run.