Just noticed cocoa futures had a pretty wild day - NY May contracts up almost 6%, London up nearly 5%. Prices hit 1.5-week highs on supply jitters. The Iran situation is spooking traders, everyone's worried about Hormuz strait closure pushing shipping costs and limiting cocoa exports.

Thing is, the broader picture for cocoa still looks bearish. ICCO bumped their 2024/25 surplus forecast to 75,000 MT (was 49,000 MT back in November), and they're expecting global production to jump 8.4% year-over-year. West African crops are looking solid too - favorable conditions and bigger pods reported. Plus Ghana and Ivory Coast just slashed farmer payouts hard, so cocoa's still flowing out even with weaker prices.

Demand's been rough though. Barry Callebaut reported a 22% drop in cocoa division sales volume, chocolate makers can't move product at current prices, and grinding reports across Europe, Asia, and North America all came in soft. ICE cocoa inventories hit a 6.5-month high last month. So yeah, today's rally might be a supply scare bounce, but the fundamental story for cocoa hasn't really changed - oversupply and weak buying interest. Could be a trade, not a trend.