Just watched the markets do that classic thing where they panic-sell first, then realize things might not be as bad as initially feared. The rebound today was actually pretty textbook risk-on behavior once traders saw the ISM manufacturing data came in stronger than expected at 52.4. Started the day rough after the US and Israel military moves on Iran, but by midday the buying pressure kicked back in. Interesting how quickly sentiment shifted. So here's what went down: stocks initially tanked on geopolitical fears, but then the rebound happened as people digested the economic data and started thinking about sector rotation opportunities. Defense stocks absolutely crushed it today with AeroVironment up over 12% and RTX pushing higher. Energy names rallied hard too as crude oil spiked to 8.25-month highs on supply concerns from the Strait of Hormuz situation. WTI up more than 65% is no joke. The price pressures are showing up everywhere though. ISM prices paid index jumped to a 3.5-year high at 70.5, which means inflation expectations are creeping back in. Bond yields initially fell on safe-haven demand but then reversed as oil prices soared, pushing the 10-year yield up 10bp to 4.04%. Pretty wild intraday action. What caught my attention was the crypto-related stock movement. Bitcoin itself is sitting around $80K and some of the crypto exposure plays like MSTR and MARA were up 7-8%, leading Nasdaq gainers. Seems like traders are treating crypto as another risk-on asset in this environment. Airlines and cruise lines got hammered obviously with fuel costs spiking. Homebuilders also feeling pressure from higher yields affecting mortgage rates. But the broader rebound tells you that markets are pricing in this as a manageable situation rather than something catastrophic. Earnings have been solid too with 74% of S&P 500 companies beating expectations so far, which is supporting the rebound narrative. The week ahead will be key with ADP employment, ISM services, and eventually the jobs report on Friday. If we keep seeing these rebounds on dips and economic data holds up, could set up an interesting environment for certain sectors.

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