Non-farm negative shock but prices rise first: The core logic behind the market movement

Many people are puzzled: why did the U.S. non-farm data significantly hurt gold, yet the market initially surged by dozens of points? This is not an abnormal market phenomenon, but a typical result of capital game-playing within the non-farm data.

First, this is a realization of "buy the expectations, sell the facts." Before the data is released, the market has already digested the negative expectations, with a large amount of capital pre-positioning in short positions. After the negative data is announced, shorts are concentrated in closing positions, creating buying pressure that pushes prices higher.

Second, this is the main force's tactic of inducing a rally to shake out traders. When the data is negative, retail investors instinctively chase short positions. The big players first push prices up to wipe out short stop-losses, creating a false rebound to lure longs into buying, then reverse their positions to sell off and harvest profits.

At the same time, the liquidity gap at the moment of data release can cause prices to initially fluctuate upward toward less resistant levels. Coupled with the fact that this payroll data was below expectations, it gave short-term traders an excuse for speculation, amplifying this rebound.

Essentially, this wave of "negative shock followed by a rise" results from the combined effects of short covering, main force inducing longs, and market liquidity. It is also a common classic script in non-farm data releases: "first induce longs, then follow the main trend."