Just noticed the S&P 500 briefly hit 7,000 last quarter, but the market's been flashing some pretty serious warning signals ever since. Tech earnings disappointed, and now everyone's questioning whether all that AI spending will actually translate to real profits. What caught my attention is the Buffett indicator—it's sitting around 222%, which is flashing red territory historically. We're only talking about the fourth time in 60 years this metric has gotten this stretched relative to GDP. The last three times it flashed this extreme? 1968 before the tech crash, 2000 during the dot-com bubble, and 2021 when inflation hit. Each time, we saw major drawdowns. Now, there are some nuances—US companies earn internationally, and a few megacap stocks carry outsized weight in the index. So the indicator isn't a guaranteed crash signal. But it's definitely flashing a caution light that returns might disappoint and volatility could spike. Worth keeping an eye on if you're holding broad market exposure.

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