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Just caught the soybean action from Thursday - prices were up 20 cents or better across the board, pretty solid momentum carrying over from Wednesday. New crop contracts gained 7 to 11 cents, and the cash bean spot was sitting at $10.47, up 20 on the day.
Trump's pushing China to commit to 20 MMT of soybean purchases this season instead of the previous 12 MMT target, which is clearly supporting the market here. That's driving a lot of the upside we're seeing. Soymeal futures climbed $5 to $7, though soy oil stayed relatively flat to slightly down.
Looking at the USDA export data from last week - 436,949 MT moved, down 46% from the prior week but up 32% year-over-year. China took 233,000 MT of that, Egypt grabbed 104,700, and Mexico picked up 81,000. The interesting part is soybean meal sales came in at 380,335 MT, right in the middle of what traders were expecting.
Brazil's export numbers are worth noting too - they shipped 1.88 MMT in January, down 44% from December but up 75% compared to last January. That's a pretty wild swing. For the spring crop insurance calculations, the average close for November futures has been tracking at $10.85 so far, which is above last year's $10.54 - so farmers are looking at a better baseline this year.
Futures closed strong across the district: Mar 26 at $11.12 1/4 (up 20 cents), May 26 at $11.26 (up 21 1/4), and Jul 26 at $11.37 1/4 (up 20 1/2). Seems like the market's pricing in some real support from the trade side.