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Recently, I've seen many people still hype up marijuana concept stocks, especially companies like Tilray. But honestly, this hype has lasted for so many years, and what’s the result? Most marijuana companies are still losing money.
I’ve noticed that Tilray’s strategy is indeed changing. They’re no longer solely focused on marijuana but are starting to acquire various brands—covering marijuana, CBD, and alcoholic beverages—aiming to transform into a brand management company. Sounds good, but the problem is these acquisitions are all paid with stock. Over the past five years, their share count has been diluted by over 300%, yet the company still hasn’t achieved sustainable profitability, and has taken impairment charges across all business segments. This indicates that their new growth plans might not be as smooth as expected.
In comparison, I think Altria is a more interesting choice. This company holds an absolute leadership position in the U.S. tobacco market, with the Marlboro brand accounting for 40.5% of the market share, and the entire tobacco market share at 45.2%. Although tobacco sales have been declining over the years, the key point is that this business generates ample cash flow, allowing the company to remain profitable. They use this cash to increase dividends—currently offering a dividend yield of 6.1%—and are also investing in new product development, hoping to find growth opportunities to replace tobacco.
Of course, Altria has also hit some bumps. For example, their investment in Juul was unsuccessful, and early attempts into the marijuana market also failed, with billions of dollars in impairments on their books. But they have a solid financial foundation, capable of withstanding these setbacks, and recently they acquired NJOY, an e-cigarette company, to continue testing the waters.
Honestly, if you’re willing to take high risks, the risk-reward ratio of Altria looks much better than Tilray’s. Although Altria’s core tobacco business is in decline, this cash cow can still generate profits to support dividends and new product investments. In the future, Altria might even re-enter the marijuana sector. Of course, this isn’t advice for conservative investors, but if you’ve already decided to take on risk, you should pay close attention to how these companies’ management teams are hedging against business decline—this applies to both Tilray and Altria, but Altria’s fundamentals are much more solid.