Caught the mixed close on US coffee prices Friday - arabica up slightly while robusta dipped. Nothing too dramatic, but the real story is what's been happening underneath. Prices have been getting hammered over the past few weeks as supply concerns basically evaporated.

Brazil's the main culprit here. Their crop agency Conab just reported production jumping 17.2% year-over-year to a record 66.2 million bags. Arabica specifically is up over 23%, and with decent rainfall in the major growing regions, the outlook just keeps improving. Meanwhile Vietnam's pumping out robusta like crazy - January exports surged 38% and they're tracking toward 1.76 million metric tons for the year. When the world's top robusta producer is flooding the market, robusta prices obviously take it on the chin.

The inventory picture is interesting though. ICE arabica stocks bounced back to 461K bags after hitting lows, and robusta inventories recovered too. That recovery is bearish for prices, but there's a small positive - Colombia's production is actually down 34% year-over-year, which at least provides some support. The USDA is projecting world production hitting a record 178.8 million bags next year, so unless demand suddenly spikes, US coffee prices probably stay under pressure.

Dollar weakness did spark some short covering on Friday, but the fundamental picture is pretty clear: global supply is abundant and getting better. That's not great news for anyone long coffee right now.