Just noticed cocoa got absolutely hammered these past few weeks, but yesterday we saw some interesting technical action. Both NY and London cocoa futures bounced hard after hitting those 2+ year lows, looks like funds covering shorts when things got too oversold. Classic move when prices drop that fast.

The fundamental story is pretty clear though - global cocoa supplies are everywhere right now. StoneX is looking at massive surpluses for the next couple seasons, and demand has been weak as hell. Chocolate makers like Barry Callebaut reported huge volume drops because consumers are just refusing to pay these prices. Even the grinding data from Europe and Asia showed some of the worst numbers in years.

What's interesting is West Africa had solid growing conditions which should mean bigger harvests coming. But here's the thing - farmers are actually holding back shipments because prices are so low. Meanwhile, Nigeria's production is falling, which is giving some support to the market.

So you've got this weird setup where London coffee futures and NY cocoa are both under pressure from abundant supplies, but there's some technical bounce happening. The real question is whether demand can stabilize or if we keep grinding lower.