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Today’s market...
Yesterday, this wave dropped 80,000 but couldn't hold... Even with minimal delta in the Asian session, it still touched 79.1k...
The first question to answer today is whether 82.8k is the stage top... Can we consider the pattern to be bearish (different from intraday short)?.
Let's look at two main aspects first.
Figure 1: Based on the symmetry of this wave, if it’s to follow the previous two waves... there’s still some distance to a 5.5~5.8% pullback... To complete this wave, it’s roughly around 78k. At the same time, 78k is also the POC support level and the spot order support level...
Figure 2: Looking on-chain, after grinding for a week last week and finally touching the two important cost zones of the red and blue lines, it’s now facing the critical point of whether a breakout or pullback can hold.
And these two lines are resonating in the zone just above 78k. So this is a defensive point for the bulls, and also a place where many missing out bulls want to enter.
This demand can also be seen in the spot and contract orders in Figure 3...
So, the 78k~78.6k range is the area to keep an eye on...
Currently, this overlaps with the liquidity zone, as shown in Figure 4...
For a long position, the first wave observation is around 80.5k, considering yesterday’s VWAP... combined with two previous lows... to see if there’s a scalp opportunity...
Further up, we need to continue watching US stock sentiment. Only by considering the nearby previous highs and making secondary highs or SFPs...