Hormuz’s “Powder Keg” Explodes! After BTC Falls Below $80, Will Tonight’s Non-Farm Payroll Be Another “Finishing Blow”?

The market in the early morning is just like riding a roller coaster. One moment, people were fantasizing about “U.S.-Iran peace talks,” and the next moment, the U.S. Central Command directly confirmed: a military interception and counterattack took place in the Strait of Hormuz. As soon as the news hit, U.S. stocks instantly switched from an “AI bull market” to a “risk-avoidance mode,” and BTC was also kicked back below $80,000.
The most outrageous part is oil prices. During the day, they were pretending to be dead, but at night, they shot up in a V-shape—like someone had pressed the “Middle East plot acceleration button.”
At present, the market is focusing on three signals:
First, whether the U.S. will continue to escalate militarily. If later there is reinforcement of aircraft carriers, more sanctions, or Iran continues to block shipping, risk assets will keep getting hit.
Second, whether the Strait of Hormuz is truly blocked. Nearly one-third of global seaborne oil shipments pass through this route. Once there are issues with oil output and shipping, oil prices could keep soaring.
Third, tonight’s Non-Farm payroll data. If employment remains strong, expectations for Fed rate cuts will be delayed again. What the market fears most is not bad data, but “the economy being too strong to cut rates.”
BTC is currently in an awkward spot. $80,000 was originally a sentiment support level, but now it has become a “bulls’ face-saving project.” If tonight’s data is mild, and the Middle East does not further deteriorate, Bitcoin has a chance to quickly rally back above $80,000, because a large number of leveraged short positions have already started to build up.
But if non-farm payroll keeps coming in scorching hot, the market could see a classic scenario:
“Oil prices rise, U.S. bond prices rise, the dollar rises, and BTC cries.”
The crypto market is increasingly looking like Nasdaq’s “high-beta doppelganger.” The moment macroeconomics sneezes, the coin market goes straight into a high fever.
Tonight may determine whether the May trend is a “golden pit” or a “chain of pits.” #Gate广场五月交易分享