Is Bitcoin dropping below $80k just a smoke screen? The real big boss might be tonight’s non-farm payroll report

Many people think this Bitcoin crash is due to the US-Iran conflict.
Actually, that’s only half correct.
What truly scares the market is the deadly chain: “rising oil prices → inflation rebound → delayed rate cuts.”
Because once crude oil prices surge again, the Federal Reserve will be very uncomfortable.
Powell originally wanted to appear dovish, but now he might have to pull out “higher for longer” again.
Suddenly, the market realizes:
Uh-oh, rate cuts might be pushed further back.
So last night, Bitcoin fell below $80k, but essentially it’s not war panic, it’s liquidity panic.
Currently, the US-Iran situation is unlikely to spiral out of control in the short term.
Both sides are testing boundaries but don’t want to turn it into a “big ongoing drama.”
The US needs to control oil prices, and Iran doesn’t want its economy to be squeezed further.
Therefore, the real key to the market’s victory or defeat is actually tonight’s non-farm payroll report.
If the data is below expectations, the market will immediately imagine:
“Economic cooling = earlier rate cuts = risk assets rebound!”
Bitcoin is very likely to undergo a violent correction, re-claim $80k, or even push directly toward $83k.
But if the data remains strong, especially if wage growth rises again, then it’s trouble.
Because that means inflation stickiness persists, and the Fed might continue to adopt a “hawkish stance.”
At that point, the market will enter a strange state:
Too weak economy will fall,
Too strong economy will also fall.
And Bitcoin, caught in the middle, will be like a “tech stock Plus member” hit by macro shocks. #Gate广场五月交易分享