Oil prices surge, does Bitcoin kneel first? The most dangerous signals behind this round of market movement

Last night, it wasn't the altcoins that suffered the most.
It was those who firmly believe that "BTC has completely detached from macro factors."
As soon as something happened in the Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin immediately proved with action:
"Bro is now also a global risk asset."
After the US military intercepted the Iranian attack, the first reaction in global markets was to seek safety.
Gold surged, crude oil skyrocketed, US stocks pulled back, and BTC directly fell below $80k.
Why?
Because now, Wall Street funds are占比越来越高.
ETF funds, institutional quant funds, macro funds are deeply involved in BTC trading.
It is no longer just "a game for the crypto circle."
There are two key issues now:
First, will the US and Iran continue to escalate?
Currently, both sides are in a "limited conflict" stage.
Neither dares to truly shut down the Strait of Hormuz, because that would directly ignite global inflation.
Second, will non-farm payrolls become a secondary shock?
If tonight’s employment data continues to be hot, the market will think:
"America’s economy is not cooling at all, and the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut rates."
This will directly suppress BTC valuation.
But interestingly, if the data is too poor, the market will worry about recession.
So now, the market has entered a "both sides are uncomfortable" mode.
However, from a trading perspective, around $80k is actually a cost zone for大量ETF资金.
Once panic is released, institutions might instead buy at low levels.
In other words:
Retail investors see war,
Institutions see discounts.
#美伊冲突再升级