Been scrolling through some old data and got curious about how that 2018 IPO list actually played out. You know, back when everyone was hyped about these new public companies? Figured I'd check in on a few to see what happened to people's money over the past few years.

So the wild part is how different things turned out. Some of these 2018 IPOs absolutely crushed it. Moderna went from $23 at IPO to nearly $120 by late 2022 - that's a +420% return if you had the guts to hold. BJ's Wholesale Club also printed money, up like +344% from its $17 entry point. Even Nio, the Chinese EV play that launched at just $6, nearly tripled to $17.62. Not bad for a market that was supposed to be brutal.

Then you had the total disasters. Spotify came in hot at $165.90 but got absolutely wrecked - down 46% by September 2022. ADT and Cushman & Wakefield also got smashed, both down around 30-46%. Even Dropbox, which seemed solid, couldn't hold its IPO price. The thing is, a lot of these companies had legit businesses, but the market just wasn't having it in late 2022.

What's interesting looking back at the 2018 IPO list is how much the macro environment mattered. The ones that benefited from pandemic tailwinds (DocuSign, Moderna) held up better. The ones exposed to real estate and commercial stuff got demolished when rates started climbing. And tech? Mixed bag depending on the specific business.

If you're thinking about IPO investing, the lesson from that 2018 class seems pretty clear - timing matters way more than picking the 'right' company. Even solid businesses can get crushed by broader market conditions. But if you somehow got into the winners early, you're probably still sitting pretty.