Been digging into Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio moves lately, and there's some interesting tension playing out right now. You've got Warren Buffett's fingerprints all over the place even though he's stepped back from day-to-day picks, and honestly, some of these holdings deserve a closer look given what's happening in the market.

Let's start with American Express. It's taken a beating—down nearly 20% from its December peak—and most people blame the same story: consumer debt is crushing households right now. The Fed's numbers are pretty sobering. U.S. household debt hit a record $18.8 trillion, and delinquencies are sitting at nearly 4.8%, the highest in about a decade. On paper, that should spell trouble for any lender. But here's the thing about Amex that people keep missing: it doesn't serve the average borrower. Their cardholders skew wealthy, and luxury spending actually grew 15% year-over-year last quarter. That's nearly double the 8% growth in overall billed business. So while everyone's panicking about the consumer, Amex's actual customer base is still spending. This 20% pullback might genuinely be the discount opportunity you get.

Then there's Constellation Brands. Warren Buffett loaded up on Corona and Modelo late last year, and yeah, it hasn't worked yet. The stock's down since he bought in, and Gallup's data shows alcohol consumption in the U.S. is at a multidecade low of 54%. Sounds bleak. But this is where patience matters. The booze industry is cyclical—demand gets suppressed when people are stressed or broke, then bounces back when confidence returns. Meanwhile, Constellation's been cleaning house internally, ditching lower-margin wine brands that were just noise. New leadership coming in should help reset expectations too. Sometimes you just have to wait for the cycle to turn.

Now, the flip side. Not every Warren Buffett position is a keeper. DaVita—the kidney dialysis company—is a cautionary tale. Berkshire bought in back in 2011 when the business was solid and reimbursement rates were reasonable. That world has completely flipped. Revenue's up just 5% year-over-year through the first three quarters of 2025, but net income dropped 17%. It's basically a microcosm of what's broken in healthcare right now. Buffett clearly saw this coming—he started quietly selling off the position early last year, and Greg Abel's been continuing that exit. Sometimes the best move is knowing when to get out.

The broader lesson here is that Warren Buffett's moves are worth studying, but context matters. Amex looks undervalued for the right reasons. Constellation's got a cyclical tailwind coming. DaVita? That's a cautionary tale about overstaying in a deteriorating industry. If you're looking at any of these, focus on where the actual fundamentals are heading, not just the short-term noise.