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Retail investors look at the price during panic, but what do professional traders look at during panic?
On the night Bitcoin drops below 80k, retail investors' social media is filled with loss screenshots and market complaints. But in the eyes of professional traders and institutional investors, they focus on a completely different set of indicators.
First is the funding rate. After a sharp decline, has the perpetual contract funding rate shifted from positive to negative? If it turns negative and remains negative, it indicates that market sentiment has quickly shifted from greed to fear, with excessive short positions, which can actually trigger a short squeeze rebound.
Second is the skew in the options market. Are the premiums for put options relative to call options extremely high? If so, it means panic sentiment has been fully priced in, and further declines are limited.
Third is on-chain data. Are long-term holders distributing or continuing to accumulate? Is the exchange's BTC balance increasing (indicating selling pressure) or decreasing (meaning moving into cold wallets, not eager to sell)?
Fourth is the flow of stablecoins. During a sharp decline, if a large amount of stablecoins remain on exchanges, it suggests potential buyers are waiting for an opportunity to enter; if stablecoins are flowing out, it indicates market confidence has truly deteriorated.
These indicators collectively depict the market's true "temperature," not the panic level conveyed by news headlines. Based on past experience, when the panic index, skewness, and funding rate all reach extreme levels simultaneously, the market is often not far from a short-term bottom.
Tonight, before and after the non-farm payroll report, instead of frequently refreshing prices, it’s better to spend some time observing the changes in these indicators. Price is just the surface; the underlying fund flows and emotional structure are the real confidence for making independent judgments.