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Institutions Increase Bets, Legislation Clarified—Does Bitcoin Have the Confidence to Once Again Target 80,000? After a small dip during the day, Bitcoin surged again in the evening, broke through the $80,000 mark, and then pulled back—this time, will it be able to hold its ground?
Listen to what Xiao Caishen has to say.
## 1. Core driving forces behind this round of rally
### 1) Institutional funds continue to increase bets
U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have posted net inflows for three consecutive days totaling $1.18 billion (with a $532 million inflow on May 6). BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC account for over 90% of the incremental increase.
Institutional holdings as a share have surpassed 7%. On-chain data shows that in the past month, long-term holders have added nearly 330,000 BTC (about $26.7 billion), forming strong support.
Spot cumulative trading volume (CVD) surged 199%, with buyer power dominating market depth.
### 2) Regulatory and macro environment improves
In the U.S., the two-party agreement on the “Digital Asset Regulatory Clarity Act” has been reached, reducing policy uncertainty.
Traditional financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are accelerating their plans for Bitcoin ETFs and custody business.
An easing of tensions between the U.S. and Iran has boosted global risk appetite, driving capital to rotate from safe-haven assets into cryptocurrencies.
### 3) Technical breakout signals emerge
The daily chart forms a bullish flag pattern, effectively breaking through the $77,500 resistance level.
At $84,000 there is a CME futures gap, making it a key target level for bulls.
The weekly MACD shows a bullish golden cross, strengthening the medium- and long-term trend.
## 2. Potential impact pathways from tonight’s Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data
▶ If the data is strong (new jobs >200k, hourly wages month-over-month >0.3%)
The market will expect the Fed to delay rate cuts, strengthening the U.S. dollar and suppressing risk assets.
Bitcoin may see a short-term pullback to the $77,000–$75,000 support range.
ETF inflows may slow down, and the risk of liquidations for leveraged longs could rise (current open interest is $25 billion).
▶ If the data is weak (new jobs <150k, unemployment rate >4%)
Rate-cut expectations will heat up, boosting liquidity preference.
Bitcoin could break through $82,000.
The upside target points to $94,800 measured from the technical pattern (bullish flag target).
Institutions may accelerate accumulation via ETFs, forming a coordinated upside move with gold.
## 3. Key points to watch in institutional fund flows
**ETF flow continuity:** If net inflows exceed $300 million for five consecutive days, it will confirm FOMO sentiment among institutions.
**Changes in BlackRock/Fidelity holdings:** The two firms account for 76% of total ETF inflows, and their actions carry forward-looking indicators.
**On-chain whale addresses:** Addresses holding 1,000+ BTC have increased their holdings on a weekly basis to a year-high—watch for profit-taking signals.
**Tonight’s strategy focus:** Pay attention to how gold and Nasdaq futures react within 1 hour after the NFP release. If both rise, the probability of Bitcoin breaking out increases significantly. If the U.S. Dollar Index surges rapidly, be on guard for a chain liquidation caused by leveraged positions leading to short-term panic. With an institutional-led market, the risk of chasing highs and selling lows is extremely high. The key watershed level to watch is $78,500, given the strength of weekly support.
Institutional Accumulation and Clear Legislation—Is Bitcoin's Confidence to Rebound to 80,000 Strong Enough?
After experiencing a small dip during the day, Bitcoin surged again in the evening and broke through the $80,000 mark, then pulled back. Can it stabilize this time? Let’s hear what the little financial wizard has to say.
1. The Core Drivers of This Round of Rally
1. Institutional Funds Continually Increasing
The US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net inflows of $1.18 billion over three consecutive days (with a single-day inflow of $532 million on May 6), with BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC contributing over 90% of the growth.
Institutional holdings have surpassed 7%, and on-chain data shows long-term holders have increased their holdings by nearly 330k BTC (about $330k) in the past month, forming a strong support.
Cumulative spot trading volume Delta (CVD) surged by 199%, with buyer strength dominating market depth.
2. Regulatory and Macro Environment Improvements
The US bipartisan agreement on the “Digital Asset Regulatory Clarity Act” reduces policy uncertainty.
Traditional financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are accelerating their deployment of Bitcoin ETFs and custody services.
Easing US-Iran tensions have boosted global risk appetite, with funds shifting from safe-haven assets to cryptocurrencies.
3. Technical Breakthrough Signals
A bullish flag pattern has formed on the daily chart, effectively breaking through the $77,500 resistance level.
There is a CME futures gap at $84,000, which is a key target for bulls.
The weekly MACD has shown a bullish golden cross, strengthening the medium- and long-term trend.
2. Potential Impact Pathways of Tonight’s Non-Farm Payroll Data
▶ If the data is strong (new jobs > 200k, hourly wages MoM > 0.3%)
The market will expect the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and suppressing risk assets.
Bitcoin may experience a short-term correction to the support zone of $77,000–75,000.
ETF fund inflows may slow down, and leveraged long positions face increased liquidation risk (current open interest is $25 billion).
▶ If the data is weak (new jobs < 150k, unemployment rate > 4%)
Expectations for rate cuts will rise, boosting liquidity preference, and Bitcoin could break through $82,000.
The upward target points to the technical pattern measurement of $94,800 (bullish flag target).
Institutions may accelerate ETF accumulation, creating a linked rally with gold.
3. Key Observation Points on Institutional Fund Movements
ETF Flow Continuity: If net inflows exceed $300 million for five consecutive days, it will confirm institutional FOMO sentiment.
BlackRock/Fidelity Holdings Changes: These two institutions account for 76% of total ETF inflows, and their movements serve as leading indicators.
On-Chain Whale Addresses: Addresses holding 1,000+ BTC have increased their holdings to a new high for the year, signaling potential profit-taking.
Tonight’s Strategy Focus:
Monitor the reactions of gold and Nasdaq futures within one hour after the non-farm payroll release—if both rise together, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through increases significantly; if the US dollar index surges rapidly, beware of short-term liquidations triggered by leveraged positions.
Under institutional-led markets, chasing rallies or selling on dips carries very high risk. The key support level on the weekly chart is $78,500.