Is it becoming harder to cut interest rates? The Federal Reserve may be entering a "pretend-to-be-dead mode"

What did the market ask every day before?
"When will interest rates be cut?"
Now the market is changing its tune:
"Will they cut again this year or not?"
With inflation fluctuating, oil prices rising, and U.S. debt pressures increasing, the Federal Reserve has suddenly entered a strange state.
It’s very much like students who can’t solve problems during an exam:
They drag it out.
Recently, more and more institutions are discussing:
The Fed may enter a "long-term pause."
What does that mean?
Simply put:
No rate hikes,
No rate cuts,
Just observing.
The problem is,
The market hates this state the most.
Because the capital market essentially lives on "expectations."
And a long-term pause
means the future direction is becoming more and more unclear.
The most awkward part is,
The U.S. economy now feels like it’s pressing both the accelerator and the brake at the same time.
On one hand, employment isn’t too bad,
Consumption hasn’t completely collapsed.
On the other hand,
Manufacturing is weak,
Debt pressures are rising,
And real estate is cooling down.
As a result, the Fed dares not act recklessly.
Cut rates too quickly,
Fearing inflation will resurface;
Keeping high interest rates,
Fearing the economy will be suffocated.
So what does Powell increasingly resemble now?
Like a doctor in a hospital who dares not administer medication lightly.
"Just observe and wait."
But the market doesn’t have that patience.
Because over the past two years,
All risk assets relied on one belief:
"Rates will eventually be cut."
Now that this story is starting to loosen,
The market is naturally anxious.
Especially tech stocks and cryptocurrencies.
They fundamentally thrive on "liquidity."
High interest rates,
Money is expensive;
Money is expensive,
Risk assets naturally face more pressure.
So recently, the market has become more and more like a split personality:
Daytime trading AI,
Nighttime worrying about recession.
And the real danger is:
If long-term high interest rates persist,
The logic of global asset pricing might change altogether.
The era of "unlimited liquidity" in the past,
May truly be gone forever.
Many people still haven’t realized:
The scariest thing isn’t rate hikes,
But that high interest rates become the new normal.