#Gate广场五月交易分享 #美伊冲突再升级 Stop getting repeatedly harvested by US-Iran headlines—look here fast!

At this time yesterday, a piece of news about a US-Iran agreement directly sent oil prices crashing, with a single-day drop of 10%. Gold and Bitcoin both rose. However, after less than 12 hours, the U.S. Central Command confirmed that U.S. forces intercepted and retaliated against Iran’s attack in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices immediately “V-rebounded,” and Bitcoin and gold fell back to where they were. For family members who have been trading based on the news—haven’t they been “cut down” too?

If, like Polymarket, you treat whether the US-Iran talks succeed or fail as a single candlestick, then in the current stage, Little Caishen believes it’s a sideways consolidation box—what everyone calls the standoff phase. Are the US and Iran talking? Of course. Will they reach an agreement? Not that quickly. So the conflict won’t escalate further, and it won’t end quickly either. Just like Trump said, “It’s just a gentle tap; the ceasefire is still ongoing and remains effective.”

It is expected that this situation of “conflict not escalating, with small skirmishes continuing” will persist, and the US and Iran will also work together to use the news to manipulate financial markets and harvest retail investors worldwide. So everyone, don’t chase the headlines. Whether it’s gold or Bitcoin, just identify the range where the price is oscillating and trade in swings!

In the evening, after a day of pullback, Bitcoin showed early signs of a rebound. Little Caishen believes the big coin can still withstand the pressure and return to 80,000. After all, the three main logics behind this round of gains have not changed:

1. Institutional capital continues to add more‌
The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for three consecutive days totaling $1.18 billion (a single-day inflow of $532 million on May 6). BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC contribute over 90% of the incremental amount.
The institutional holdings share has surpassed 7%. On-chain data shows long-term holders increased their holdings by 330k BTC in nearly a month (about $26.7 billion), forming strong support.
Spot cumulative trading volume Delta (CVD) surged by 199%, with buyer strength dominating market depth.

2. Improvement in regulation and macro environment‌
The U.S. bipartisan agreement on the “Clear Digital Asset Regulation Act” reaches a compromise, reducing policy uncertainty.
Traditional financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are accelerating their expansion of Bitcoin ETFs and custody businesses.
The easing of US-Iran tensions improves global risk appetite, shifting funds from safe-haven assets to cryptocurrencies.

3. Technical breakout signals‌
The daily chart forms a bullish flag pattern and effectively breaks above the $77,500 resistance level.
At $84,000, there is a CME futures gap, turning it into a key target level for the bulls.
The weekly MACD shows a bullish golden cross, strengthening the medium- to long-term trend.

Tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls data at 20:30 may end the current range-bound setup for gold and the big coin. Whether it returns to 78,500 or breaks above 82,000 depends entirely on what the Non-Farm report delivers. It’s recommended not to bet on the data—stay flat first. After the data comes out, then choose your trading direction.

Focus on how gold and Nasdaq futures react within 1 hour after the Non-Farm is released: if both rise together, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through increases significantly. If the U.S. Dollar Index surges rapidly, be alert to short-term cascaded liquidations triggered by leveraged positions. Under an institution-led market, the risk of chasing rallies and cutting at a loss is extremely high. The key watershed to watch is the weekly support strength at $78,500.