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Tonight at 8:30 PM, the Non-Farm payrolls are coming in strongly. Wukong will be stationed on the front line tonight, providing full online guidance throughout the session. Tonight, take a bearish view across the board at 77,000.
Current unemployment rate: 4.3%. Employed population: previous 178k, current 62k.
Non-Farm data below expectations: U.S. employment is not good. The market will think there will be interest-rate cuts and more liquidity (“money” easing). The market may surge significantly. Big BTC’s expected range is 83.0k–85.0k.
Non-Farm data above expectations: employment is too strong. Rate cuts are out of the question, and interest rates may even stay high. The crypto market will face pressure, pull back, and trend lower. Big BTC’s expected range is 77.0k–75.0k.
From the current situation, the market has slightly warmed up before the Non-Farm release—this is an early release of bullish space. From a structural perspective as well, there are clear signs of a top forming at 82,800. At the same time, short-term momentum has weakened, and the continuation signs are still relatively strong. Therefore, personally, I think a pullback tonight is more favorable.
There is no guaranteed 100% right or wrong direction, so everyone must make sure risk control is in place. Better to stay on the sidelines and observe than to act recklessly.