The sudden escalation of the US-Iran situation has once again cast a shadow over the previously clearer expectations for peace talks. Combining the latest market dynamics, here is some analysis on several key issues:

1️⃣ Will the US-Iran situation further escalate?

From current signals, the situation is likely to remain in a "stalemate" and "testing" phase rather than slide into large-scale war.

There is a risk of escalation, but both sides have shown restraint. The key points from the latest information:

· Clear intention to "use force to promote negotiations": The timing of this conflict is very delicate—just as the US and Iran are close to reaching a "one-page understanding" on nuclear issues. The US's "mild punishment" (Trump's words) seems more like maximum pressure on Iran, aiming to "give a sweet treat and then slap again," forcing Tehran back to the negotiating table to sign peacefully.
· Critical "tone-setting" information: Despite the fighting, US officials (Central Command) have explicitly stated they are "not seeking escalation," and Trump emphasized that "a ceasefire remains effective." This core tone-setting defines the upper limit of the conflict, indicating both sides still maintain a dangerous balance between "neither war nor peace."
· Follow-up focus: If Iran does not compromise, the US may push again the previously failed "# Freedom Plan" (escort of commercial ships through the strait), which would be a further test of Iran's bottom line.

2️⃣ Can Bitcoin withstand pressure and retake $80k?

In the short term, it faces shocks, but the selling pressure is largely due to profit-taking and panic, with medium- to long-term resilience still present.

· Why the decline? As a risk asset, geopolitical conflicts trigger risk aversion, leading investors to sell Bitcoin. Additionally, Bitcoin's pullback from highs also requires technical correction, with overbought RSI triggering sell-offs.
· An important bullish signal: Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin futures has been negative for 67 consecutive days, the longest on record in ten years. This means shorts pay daily to hold positions, and any positive news (like "US-Iran talks show signs of progress") could easily trigger a "short squeeze" rebound.
· Can it retake $80k? The key depends on news flow. If the situation remains under control and non-farm payrolls are moderate, the $79,614 current price (around $80k) has strong support. But a short squeeze explosion might require breaking through the 200-day moving average at $83,200 to establish strength.

3️⃣ How to interpret tonight’s non-farm payroll data? How will it affect rate cut expectations?

Regardless of the data's outcome, the market impact could be amplified by massive volatility.

· Bullish or bearish? The market generally expects April US non-farm payrolls to increase by 62k, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%. Considering the surprising March data (+178k), even if tonight’s data meets expectations, it’s unlikely to prompt the Fed to cut rates early.
· Deadly blow to rate cut expectations: The current core narrative isn’t "recession," but "stagflation"—rising prices amid economic stagnation. Geopolitical conflicts keep oil prices high, combined with month-over-month wage increases, leading markets to nearly zero out rate cut expectations for 2026. Unless tonight’s data unexpectedly tanks (e.g., very poor figures), the Fed will find it hard to justify rate cuts.

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Overall, all assets tonight will face an extremely complex situation: volatile oil prices and tense geopolitical tensions provide bullish background, but strong or expected non-farm payroll data could "cut the legs" from the already weak rate cut expectations, creating a severe conflict.

Therefore, the pricing of S&P 500 index options indicates about 1.3% of significant market volatility tonight. The Fed’s rate cut threshold has been severely raised by geopolitical conflicts, and traders openly say the market has entered a "risk desert" where both bullish and bearish scenarios could easily trigger "whipsaw" movements.