Tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls—just the key points: it’s most likely a bearish accelerator.

1. Surface data is “cut in half” (expected 62k vs prior value 178k), but ADP on Wednesday already came in above expectations at 109k. The market has a very high bar for absorbing “weakness,” so it’s actually hard for the data to be genuinely bullish.

2. Current rate-cut expectations have been fully wiped out, and some are even starting to aggressively trade/price in “another rate hike.” Unless the data breaks down to below 40k, it basically won’t be able to pry any bullish momentum out of the market—good news is ignored, and bad news accelerates the selloff.

3. Above expectations → accelerating breakdown toward 70k-72k;
In line with expectations → weak consolidation to continue;
Far below expectations → a brief rebound is likely to stall around 80k, so it’s not advisable to chase longs.

4. In the past 24 hours, more than 100k positions have been liquidated, with longs accounting for 75%. The first hour after Non-Farm Payrolls hits is the most dangerous. Wait for the data to play out and the direction to be confirmed, then enter with the flow—tonight, bearish setups are better than rushing to catch a rebound.