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I've been watching Evergy lately and there's actually something interesting happening with this utility play that most people overlook. On the surface, yeah, a Midwest power company sounds pretty dull. But thanks to the data center boom in Kansas and Missouri, this stock has actually been performing pretty solid.
So here's what caught my attention. The company just wrapped up its Q4 update and the numbers were pretty much in line with expectations. Wall Street was looking for around $1.43 billion in Q4 revenue (up roughly 58% year-over-year), and the adjusted earnings estimate was sitting at $0.55 per share. Evergy's guidance had suggested Q4 EPS around $0.56, which would've beaten that consensus by a penny.
Now, I'll be honest - their track record of hitting estimates is a bit spotty. They've missed in three of the last four quarters, so there's definitely some execution risk to keep an eye on. But here's what really matters: what the company is saying about what comes next.
Back in their Q3 call, CEO David Campbell basically signaled they had an updated growth outlook coming. That's the kind of signal you want to see from a stock like this. It suggests management sees real opportunities ahead, not just maintaining the status quo.
The thing is, by the time the earnings actually dropped, the stock had already moved. After they filed for those rate increases in Missouri, the price jumped. Now the 12-month price target is only sitting about 2% above where it's trading, so there's not exactly huge upside priced in anymore.
Honestly, with a stock like this - it's fundamentally a buy-and-hold dividend play. Whether you picked it up before or after the latest earnings announcement doesn't really move the needle in the long run. If you like the utility exposure and the dividend, the entry point matters less than most people think. Just a thought on how I'm approaching it.