Tonight’s Non-Farm Payrolls—just say the key points: it’s most likely a bearish accelerator.

1. Superficial data is “cut in half”（expected 62k vs previous 178k）, but the ADP report on Wednesday already came in above expectations at 109k. The market’s bar for digesting “weakness” is extremely high, so it’s hard for the actual numbers to be bullish.

2. Rate-cut expectations have been completely priced out, and some even start trading “another rate hike.” Unless the data crashes below 40k, it basically won’t be able to unlock any upside—good news gets ignored, while bad news accelerates the drop.

3. Above expectations → accelerated breakdown below 70k–72k;
Meets expectations → weak consolidation likely continues;
Far below expectations → a short-term rebound is likely, but it will probably hit resistance around 80k, so it’s not advisable to chase longs.

4. In the past 24 hours, over 100k accounts got liquidated, with long positions accounting for 75%. The most dangerous period is within 1 hour after Non-Farm lands. Wait for the data to play out and for the direction to be confirmed, then enter with the flow. Tonight’s bias is bearish—better than rushing to buy the rebound. $BTC #比特币跌破8万美元