#Gate广场五月交易分享 How are market expectations for tonight's non-farm payroll data? According to economists surveyed by the media, the U.S. Department of Labor is expected to report an increase of 62k jobs in April at 8:30 p.m. Beijing time. Although this figure appears weak compared to the hot employment performance of the previous month, it may still be enough to keep the unemployment rate at a relatively low 4.3%. Based on statistical samples, institutional forecasts range from a high of 133k (Soughbay Research) to a low of -15k (Citibank).

Some analysts believe that the 178k jobs added in March clearly exaggerated the actual growth rate; after removing distortions related to strikes, the average employment growth over the previous two months might have been only 20k to 30k.
Overall, while the labor market is undoubtedly cooling, it remains broadly stable and resilient despite many challenges. “The core message is similar to previous employment reports, or even more pronounced,” said David Tinsley, senior economist at the American Bankers Association. “In terms of non-farm employment, the momentum in the labor market has indeed become more solid.”
Tinsley states that to understand the current labor market, one must look beyond surface data. He referenced the commonly used “K-shaped curve” to describe the current economic situation — meaning that the benefits of prosperity are mainly concentrated among high-income groups. “There are a series of very interesting divergences in the current economy.
Overall, both wages and employment figures appear quite solid, but the ‘K-shaped’ characteristics are everywhere,” he pointed out. “Although the surface data looks robust, there are significant divergences in the current economy.” One area he particularly mentioned is wage growth — the average hourly wage is expected to grow 3.8% year-over-year in April, up from 3.5% previously, but this does not indicate where income is flowing. Data from Bank of America shows that the top third of earners saw after-tax wages grow by 6% in April, while the lowest earners only saw a 1.5% increase. Considering that the Consumer Price Index rose 3.5% through March, this data is especially painful, indicating that the real income of low-income groups has actually decreased net.
“Beneath the surface, income distribution issues are crucial,” Tinsley said. The Bank of America economist further pointed out that differences in hiring by company size are emerging, with small businesses reducing hiring over the past three months.

How are some leading employment indicators performing?
From some leading indicators released before the non-farm report, ADP’s Wednesday report of private sector employment in April was 109k, known as “Small Non-Farm,” versus an expected 120k. However, Pantheon Macroeconomics warns investors not to over-interpret this data, noting that over the past 12 months, the average absolute error between ADP’s initial estimates and the initial non-farm figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been as high as 85k. Pantheon’s own model indicates that the preliminary non-farm estimate for April is slightly below 100k; considering the roughly 20k calendar effect from Easter, the final employment figure might be around 75k.
In terms of initial jobless claims, the average for the week of the non-farm reference period in April was 215k (compared to 205k in March), and continuing claims fell to 62k (from 133k in March); in the following week, initial claims further dropped below 200k, which some models view as a positive signal. However, analysts at Barclays Bank point out that the strong growth predicted by standard models based on claims partly stems from the inference that high March data will generate momentum.
In fact, Barclays analysts themselves are not optimistic about tonight’s non-farm report. They expect nearly zero growth this month, citing factors such as worker strikes, weather impacts, and the offset from unusually favorable corporate adjustments in March. Goldman Sachs states that positive factors supporting tonight’s report include: layoffs — the average initial unemployment claims in April remained low at around 210k, unchanged from March; big data — Goldman’s tracking of alternative employment growth indicators showed steady performance in April, averaging +90k.

Reasons supporting a weaker report include: worker strikes — the BLS strike report indicates that a new strike could reduce April’s employment growth by 1,400; government hiring slowdown — Goldman expects government employment to decrease by 5,000, reflecting a reduction of 10k federal jobs (partially offset by a 5,000 increase in state and local government employment). The ongoing freeze on federal hiring will continue to suppress federal employment data. Additionally, although ongoing conflicts in the Middle East continue to cast a shadow over the U.S. economic outlook, the direct impact of this war on April’s non-farm data is expected to be limited.
Many analysts believe that any meaningful spillover effects on the labor market will take some time to manifest. Nonetheless, due to increased uncertainty, corporate hiring intentions seem to have weakened. During the survey period, Iran-related conflicts dominated headlines, leading some to believe this could hinder hiring.
The Oxford Economics Institute points out that we should not be complacent just because war risks have not yet been reflected in hard data. Analysts generally agree that energy shocks are likely to influence inflation prospects, which has become a short-term obstacle for the Federal Reserve to continue supporting easing policies (cutting interest rates).