#Gate广场五月交易分享 How will tonight's data affect the market?

Currently, the many conflicting signals from the U.S. economy are actually posing a challenge for Federal Reserve policymakers, as their disagreements over the direction of interest rate policy are increasing. Last month's Fed decision was extremely rare in having as many as four dissenting votes.
Earlier this week, Fed Chair Williams, a key figure at the New York Fed, also admitted that there are "conflicting signals" in the data—for example, while consumer confidence surveys indicate a weakening trend, data such as weekly unemployment claims show stability. "Most hard data points to stability, while some soft data suggest the economy is still gradually slowing down," Williams said.
"Overall, these indicators suggest that the unemployment rate is rising," Williams added, using terminology synonymous with a weakening labor market. "Although this disconnect between hard and soft data may reflect the impact of low hiring and firing in the labor market, it still requires close monitoring to detect signs of a shift in market conditions."
Many investors are currently betting that the relative stability of the labor market combined with high inflation will lead the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this year. In this regard, Williams reiterated his stance that he believes the current monetary policy is "appropriately positioned" to address the current economic environment.
Regarding tonight's non-farm payroll data, JPMorgan’s U.S. Market Intelligence team noted that most of this month’s high-frequency employment indicators are positive, but technical factors could drag down April’s non-farm payroll figures (weather effects, revisions, and new BLS business death/revival model figures). Seasonal patterns also suggest that employment data from previous months may be revised downward, but markets generally pay less attention to downward revisions from prior months. The team believes that stronger-than-expected non-farm data will be viewed positively by the market, as it could further ease concerns about stagflation; however, if non-farm payrolls show an extreme upside surprise (e.g., over 200k), it could trigger worries about an overheating economy.
The team added that options expiring on May 8 indicate that the market is pricing in about 1.3% volatility for the S&P 500 index on Friday. Their scenario setup is as follows:
Non-farm employment >125k: S&P 500 movement range of -1% to +1%; probability: 10%
Non-farm employment between 85k and 125k: S&P 500 movement range of 0% to +0.75%; probability: 25%
Non-farm employment between 45k and 85k: S&P 500 movement range of -0.5% to +0.5%; probability: 30%
Non-farm employment between 5k and 45k: S&P 500 movement range of -0.5% to +0.25%; probability: 25%
Non-farm employment less than 5,000: S&P 500 movement range of +0.5% to +1.0%; probability: 10%