Institution: U.S. April employment growth may slow down as temporary factors' boost diminishes

Gold Financial reports that on May 8th, the fading effects of warmer weather and the return of healthcare workers on strike to their posts have led to a potential slowdown in U.S. employment growth in April, but this does not mean there has been a substantial change in the labor market conditions, with the unemployment rate expected to remain steady at 4.3%. Data is also expected to show that last month’s wage growth accelerated, further reinforcing market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged until 2027. A Reuters survey indicates that economists attribute some of the volatility in employment data to adjustments in the “birth-death model” this year, which is used to estimate employment changes due to new business openings or closures. Some say that the high turnover among companies makes it difficult for the Bureau of Labor Statistics to estimate job creation related to new enterprises. Additionally, weather, strikes, government layoffs, and significant labor market shifts caused by the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration have also increased volatility. Economists recommend referring to a three-month moving average of employment data to better understand labor market conditions. Citigroup economist Veronica Clark stated that averaging the recent months’ data still shows moderate positive employment growth. Considering that large changes in immigration flows have led to a significant decline in average employment growth this year, this alone is not a cause for concern. (Dongxin News)