Bitcoin's current price is around $80k: short-term volatility, medium-term slow bull, long-term target of $150k | 2026.5.8$BTC ‌#比特币跌破8万美元

Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating between $79k and $81k (May 8), just pulled back from the $82k resistance level, in a critical window of "breakthrough confirmation." To state the conclusion directly: in the next 1–2 weeks, it is highly likely to first consolidate and retest lows, then look for opportunities to push higher; in the medium term (3–6 months), institutional buying will support the bottom, and oscillating upward is the main tone; before the end of the year, there is a chance to reach $120,000–$150k, but the process will not be a straight line up, with multiple sharp corrections of over 20% in between. Starting from the current price, I will explain the short-, medium-, and long-term logic and key levels.

1. Current price around $80k: The current bullish and bearish situation (May 8)

First, look at the market facts:

• Price: $79,500 (at the time of writing), pulled back from $82k during the week, a total correction of about 3,500 points, with a monthly increase of +20%, which is a "healthy correction after a strong rally," not a bear signal.

• Support levels: $78k (strong), $75k (very strong), $70k (ultimate defense).

• Resistance levels: $82k (first barrier), $84,000–$86k (second barrier), $90k (psychological milestone).

• Core contradiction: $82k is the short-term critical line—if volume supports and it stabilizes, the rebound continues; if it repeatedly fails to break above, it will first retest the support zone around $75k.

2. Short-term trend (1–2 weeks): consolidate first, then attack, avoid chasing highs

1. Most likely path (probability 60%)

• Now—mid-May: oscillate between $77k and $82k. Profit-taking at high levels, cash positions buying on dips, bulls and bears battling around $80k, no big one-way surge or plunge.

• Key catalysts: May non-farm payroll data, Federal Reserve meeting minutes. If data is hawkish (delaying rate cuts), expect a retest of $75k; if dovish (rising rate cut expectations), expect volume breakout above $82k toward $84,000–$86k.

• Trading tip: avoid chasing longs above $80k; buy in stages if it dips to $77,000–$78k; if it falls below $75k, short-term weakness may intensify, stay on the sidelines.

2. Small probability black swan (probability 40%)

• Sudden regulatory negative news (e.g., US tightening crypto taxes/ custody restrictions) or macro crises (US stocks plummeting, dollar soaring), causing rapid drop to $70k–$75k, but institutional ETF buying will support around $70,000, making deep declines unlikely.

3. Medium-term trend (3–6 months): institutional support, oscillating upward as the main tone

Core logic for the medium term: the institutionalization trend is irreversible, continuous inflow of buying, supply-side deflation, and dips are buying opportunities.

1. Capital flow: US Bitcoin spot ETFs continue to see net inflows of $5–7 billion per month, pension funds and bank custody funds are gradually entering, forming a "buy more on dips" allocation, with a strong bottom support effect.