Crucial time in the market, here’s my full Bitcoin analysis below 👇

1/ TIME
BTC peaked at $126K in October 2025. We're 7 months into this correction. In 2018 the bear lasted about 12 months peak to bottom. In 2022 it was roughly 12-13 months. We're over halfway through a historically normal correction window. Bear markets are getting shorter though including re-accumulation days.
2/ PRICE
The February flush to $60K was a 52% drawdown from the ATH. For context, 2022's bear hit 77%. 2018 was 84%. A 52% correction in a cycle with spot ETFs, Strategy buying BTC and nation-state reserve conversations is a completely different beast. One more move toward $60k or a sweep into the low $50k retion would be a 55-60% correction, enough to shake out every weak hand without breaking macro structure.
3/ MONTHLY INDICATORS
Monthly stochastic RSI is approaching oversold for the first time since the 2022 bottom. Every single time the monthly stoch has hit oversold and curled up, it preceded a major bull run. Every time. The monthly MACD is rolling toward the zero line which is exactly where it resets before the next impulse leg. One more push lower and both indicators bottom out together. That's when the monthly starts screaming.
4/ HTF vs LTF ALIGNMENT
The daily looks constructive, reclaiming key EMAs, momentum shifting. The weekly is turning, stochastic curling up around the 50-week EMA. But the monthly hasn't fully reset yet. One more leg down completes the picture. I'm waiting for the monthly to confirm a reversal while the weekly and daily are already printing higher lows. When all three timeframes tell the same story, that's when the real move starts.
5/ BOTTOM LINE
I'm not calling a macro bottom. But the math is getting harder for the ultra-bears every week. Time is compressing. Price already found buyers at $60K. Monthly indicators are entering the zone where every previous cycle bottom formed. One more flush and every timeframe aligns. That's when I go from cautious to convicted.
6/ WHAT IF $60K DOESN'T COME?
Then I need a prolonged chop range, a high timeframe re-accumulation zone where price grinds sideways and builds a proper base over weeks. Every bear market bottom in BTC history has swept liquidity below obvious levels and there's over $16 billion sitting untouched below us right now.
You can't go up for 2.5 years, correct for 6 months and expect massive outperformance over the next two. Price, sentiment and people need time to reset. Flush or chop, I need structure and time before full conviction.
Do you think the bear market bottom is on? Let me know below 👇
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