Oil prices make a shocking V rebound! Bitcoin evaporates hundreds of billions overnight: The real show starts tonight

The most surreal scene in the market yesterday was not BTC plummeting.
It was crude oil.
When news of Middle East conflict first broke, oil prices soared instantly, and the market briefly thought a "Third Oil Crisis" was coming.
But then it quickly V-shaped reversed.
Why?
Because the market realized:
Things aren't serious enough to "block the Strait of Hormuz."
This is very critical.
What truly determines the movement of global assets is not whether there is conflict, but whether oil supply is cut off.
If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, global inflation will explode instantly.
But currently, both sides are still in a "limited conflict" stage.
Simply put:
Everyone wants to show muscle,
But no one really wants to flip the table.
The problem is, even with just a "limited conflict," the market has already started to panic.
U.S. stocks retreat from high levels,
BTC drops below 80k,
Funds are frantically flowing into gold.
This indicates capital has entered a phase of "saving lives first, making money later."
Many people ask:
Can Bitcoin still rise?
I think, the core issue is not BTC itself.
But the Federal Reserve.
If tonight’s non-farm payroll data shows weakness, the market will think the U.S. economy is cooling down, and rate cut expectations will heat up again.
Then:
The dollar falls,
U.S. Treasury yields fall,
Risk assets rebound.
BTC is likely to re-stand above $80k.
But if the data is too strong, the situation will be completely opposite.
The Fed may continue to keep interest rates high,
The dollar remains strong,
Funds continue to flow out of the crypto market.
Then BTC might continue its "free fall."
Now, a strange state has formed in the market:
Good news can rise,
Bad news might also rise.
Why?
Because if bad news causes the economy to slow down, the market will instead expect rate cuts.
So tonight, what truly determines the direction is not the war itself, but:
Whether the data can force the Fed to loosen its stance.
Currently, I believe the market will remain highly volatile in the short term.
Because Middle East risks won't end immediately.
But if the situation doesn’t worsen further, and non-farm payrolls are also weak, BTC might see a wave of "panic-driven violent recovery."
The most magical thing in crypto is right here:
When it falls, it looks like doomsday,
When it rises, it seems like it can go to the moon tomorrow.
And tonight, everyone is betting:
Will the Fed step in to rescue the market? #美伊冲突再升级