Does Hormuz "Pierce" BTC? Tonight's Non-Farm Payrolls Could Be the Last Lifeline for Bulls!

The market in the early hours is more exciting than a TV drama.
First, the U.S. was still calling for "hope to continue negotiations," and right after, the U.S. military clashed with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. Central Command confirmed that after intercepting and retaliating against an Iranian attack, global markets instantly entered "roller coaster mode":
The Nasdaq plunged, gold surged, and oil temporarily skyrocketed, while Bitcoin, as if its internet connection was cut off in the middle of the night, directly fell below $80k.
Many people suddenly realize: Bitcoin has truly become a "risk asset" now.
In the past, the market always touted Bitcoin as "digital gold," but whenever U.S. stocks fall, it’s the first to kneel.
Last night’s movement was very typical—funds rushed into the dollar, gold, and oil first, while BTC was ruthlessly reduced by quant funds.
But the question is: will the situation continue to escalate?
Currently, I am focusing on three key points.
First, Iran has not fully closed the Strait of Hormuz.
This is the core of the core. About one-third of global oil shipping passes through here.
If a blockade actually occurs, oil prices won’t just rise to $100, but could directly surge above $130.
Right now, Iran is more like "showing muscle" rather than completely throwing down the gauntlet.
Second, the U.S. has left diplomatic room.
The White House’s current wording remains cautious, not yet at the level of "full-scale war."
This indicates both sides are still testing the bottom line, rather than immediately escalating fully.
Third, what the market fears most is not war, but "long-term uncertainty."
Capital hates hanging in the balance.
As long as the Middle East keeps giving you messages like "possible attack, but not fully launched" every day, risk assets will remain under pressure.
So, can BTC bounce back to $80k?
I think it’s possible in the short term, but very difficult.
The reason is simple: Bitcoin is no longer a retail game but part of Wall Street’s risk positions.
ETFs, institutions, quant funds all treat BTC as a high-volatility tech asset.
Once the market seeks safety, the first to be liquidated are those holdings.
But don’t forget, Bitcoin also has its advantages:
As long as the Federal Reserve re-issues expectations of rate cuts and liquidity returns, BTC is often one of the fastest assets to rebound.
So tonight’s non-farm payroll data is very critical.
If the data is weak—meaning U.S. employment is cooling—markets will bet on rate cuts again, and Treasury yields may fall back, giving BTC a chance for a violent rebound and reclaiming $80k.
But if the non-farm payrolls beat expectations strongly, then trouble is coming.
The market will think:
"America’s economy doesn’t need rate cuts at all."
At that point, the dollar will remain strong, Treasury yields will continue to rise, and BTC might have to go through another "sharp correction."
In simple terms:
The Middle East is responsible for creating panic,
Non-farm payrolls decide liquidity,
And BTC is now caught in the middle, like a young person being chased for debt from both sides.
Tonight is likely to be another sleepless night. #美伊冲突再升级