#Gate广场五月交易分享

Institutional Accumulation and Clear Legislation—Is Bitcoin's Confidence to Rebound to 80,000 Strong Enough?
After experiencing a small dip during the day, Bitcoin surged again in the evening and broke through the $80,000 mark, then pulled back. Can it stabilize this time? Let’s hear what the little financial wizard has to say.
1. The Core Drivers of This Round of Rally
‌1. Institutional Funds Continually Increasing‌
The US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net inflows of $1.18 billion over three consecutive days (with a single-day inflow of $532 million on May 6), with BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC contributing over 90% of the growth.
Institutional holdings have surpassed 7%, and on-chain data shows long-term holders have increased their holdings by nearly 330k BTC (about $330k) in the past month, forming a strong support.
Cumulative spot trading volume Delta (CVD) surged by 199%, with buyer strength dominating market depth.
‌2. Regulatory and Macro Environment Improvements‌
The US bipartisan agreement on the “Digital Asset Regulatory Clarity Act” reduces policy uncertainty.
Traditional financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are accelerating their deployment of Bitcoin ETFs and custody services.
Easing US-Iran tensions have boosted global risk appetite, with funds shifting from safe-haven assets to cryptocurrencies.
‌3. Technical Breakthrough Signals‌
A bullish flag pattern has formed on the daily chart, effectively breaking through the $77,500 resistance level.
There is a CME futures gap at $84,000, which is a key target for bulls.
The weekly MACD has shown a bullish golden cross, strengthening the medium- and long-term trend.
2. Potential Impact Pathways of Tonight’s Non-Farm Payroll Data
‌▶ If the data is strong (new jobs > 200k, hourly wages MoM > 0.3%)‌
The market will expect the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts, strengthening the dollar and suppressing risk assets.
Bitcoin may experience a short-term correction to the support zone of $77,000–75,000.
ETF fund inflows may slow down, and leveraged long positions face increased liquidation risk (current open interest is $25 billion).
‌▶ If the data is weak (new jobs < 150k, unemployment rate > 4%)‌
Expectations for rate cuts will rise, boosting liquidity preference, and Bitcoin could break through $82,000.
The upward target points to the technical pattern measurement of $94,800 (bullish flag target).
Institutions may accelerate ETF accumulation, creating a linked rally with gold.
3. Key Observation Points on Institutional Fund Movements
‌ETF Flow Continuity‌: If net inflows exceed $300 million for five consecutive days, it will confirm institutional FOMO sentiment.
‌BlackRock/Fidelity Holdings Changes‌: These two institutions account for 76% of total ETF inflows, and their movements serve as leading indicators.
‌On-Chain Whale Addresses‌: Addresses holding 1,000+ BTC have increased their holdings to a new high for the year, signaling potential profit-taking.
‌Tonight’s Strategy Focus‌:
Monitor the reactions of gold and Nasdaq futures within one hour after the non-farm payroll release—if both rise together, the probability of Bitcoin breaking through increases significantly; if the US dollar index surges rapidly, beware of short-term liquidations triggered by leveraged positions.
Under institutional-led markets, chasing rallies or selling on dips carries very high risk. The key support level on the weekly chart is $78,500.