Tonight at 8:30 PM, U.S. April Non-Farm Payrolls data will be announced with great significance! This is not only the final core employment report before Powell steps down but also a key indicator for the Federal Reserve's June monetary policy decision, which will directly influence the overall trend of the cryptocurrency market this week and serve as the main benchmark for market direction.

A one-sentence summary of the core trading logic: Non-farm data performance → Expectations of Fed interest rate policy → Fluctuations in the US dollar and US Treasury yields → Final pricing of crypto assets. The market has already completely dismissed expectations of rate cuts this year. The market movement triggered by this non-farm report is essentially an asymmetric risk game, where every data fluctuation will impact the entire crypto ecosystem.

1. Data far exceeds expectations → Hawkish bearish sell-off

If new employment exceeds 100k, the unemployment rate drops below 4.2%, and wage growth surpasses expectations simultaneously, it will completely eliminate the Fed's room for rate cuts this year and may even trigger market expectations of rate hikes. At that point, the dollar and US Treasuries will strengthen simultaneously, leading to a sharp short-term plunge in mainstream cryptocurrencies, with bullish funds rushing to exit, and altcoins will fall much more than major coins, resulting in a comprehensive correction.

2. Data meets expectations → Neutral consolidation

When new employment remains between 62,000-67k, the unemployment rate is between 4.2%-4.3%, and wage growth aligns with market consensus, the Fed's cautious stance will remain unchanged. The crypto market will continue to oscillate within a range, with only short-term spikes, then quickly returning to technical trends, with no trend-driven one-sided movement, and market funds will flow back into major sectors and hotspots.

3. Data far below expectations → Dovish bullish rally

If new employment is below 40k, the unemployment rate exceeds 4.4%, and wage growth is below expectations, it will reignite market expectations of rate cuts. The dollar and US Treasuries will fall back, mainstream coins will undergo violent short-term surges, short positions will be forced to cover, further boosting the market, and small-cap coins and hot topics will see a broad rally.