Today's trading idea: Short-term bias is bearish, but do not chase shorts

My judgment today is:

Below 80,200 is biased towards sideways volatility, above 80,700 increases bearish pressure, and above 81,300 consider heavy short positions again; only a break below 79,200 signals genuine weakness.

Currently, the price is near 79,800 to 80,000, rebounding from around 79,160.
It’s not suitable to continue blindly adding shorts here, because the downside of 79,500 is close to today’s maximum pain point for options, and the price is likely to be trapped and oscillate around this level. Today, about 20,000 BTC options are expiring, with a notional value of approximately $1.6 billion. The market’s maximum pain point for BTC mostly points to $79,500, with a Put/Call ratio of about 0.73, indicating short-term tug-of-war around the 79,500 level.

Regarding the Fear & Greed Index, market sentiment today has returned to the fear zone, with readings around 38, mainly influenced by geopolitical risks and rising volatility.

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3) Important events and market sentiment today

Tonight’s focus is not on CPI and non-farm payrolls, but on speeches from multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Bowman, Daly, Goolsbee, Waller, and others. If their comments lean hawkish, expectations for high interest rates will strengthen, putting pressure on stocks and BTC; if dovish, BTC may continue to rebound and test 80,700 to 81,300.