The big non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data will be released at 8:30 tonight, and market volatility is likely to be significant.

My personal bold prediction is that the unemployment rate will probably be higher than the market expectation of 4.3%, indicating that the US labor market is actually starting to weaken somewhat. Although the surface data hasn't completely collapsed yet, under the continuous suppression of high interest rates, companies' willingness to expand is noticeably weaker than before.

As for the non-farm payrolls, I think there will be a situation where it "looks okay but is actually somewhat weak," with employment numbers possibly higher than market expectations but lower than the previous figure. Simply put, new jobs are still increasing, but the growth rate has already begun to slow down.

This is actually the most realistic current state of the US economy: it's not immediately heading into recession, but it has clearly started to cool down.

So why have I always felt that the probability of rate cuts this year is very high, and I personally lean towards expecting some action around August?

Because the Federal Reserve's biggest headache now is no longer runaway inflation, but whether the economy and employment can withstand maintaining high interest rates for so long.

Especially now, the market is becoming increasingly sensitive—any further marginal weakening in employment data will cause funds to start trading in anticipation of rate cuts.

And in the crypto market and US stocks, many recent rebounds are essentially already betting on this logic in advance.

Of course, after the data is released in the short term, there will definitely be intense fluctuations, especially in high-leverage markets like Bitcoin, where shakeouts and stop hunts are probably unavoidable.

So tonight's focus isn't mindlessly chasing gains or panicking at drops, but observing how the dollar, US Treasury yields, and market sentiment react after the data is announced.

Because often, what truly determines the direction isn't the data itself, but how the big players use the data to influence market sentiment.