Big news tonight! April Non-Farm Payrolls data is about to be released

March Non-Farm Payrolls reached 178k, with expectations for April directly halving to 50,000–60k, a sharp plunge, while the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%.

Don’t be fooled by the clear cooling in employment; the Federal Reserve still dares not easily cut rates.

Inflation fundamentals are unstable, and employment resilience remains; the Fed only recognizes continued weakening and does not buy into short-term data.

Three possible market scenarios in advance:
Large drop in data below 40k: dollar weakens, gold, Nasdaq, and BTC all rally;
Data steady or slightly strong: dollar and US bonds strongly rebound, high-valuation assets face pressure and pull back;
Weak employment but strong wages: market seesawing, oscillating, and unclear direction.

Non-farm payroll night is highly unpredictable; avoid heavy positions and speculative bets.