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As the US-Iran conflict continues, the market is increasingly concerned about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and some traders have begun executing NACHO trades, meaning "Not A Chance Hormuz Open." Analysts point out that the market's response to high oil prices has been relatively orderly, but warning signals have appeared in the interest rate market. According to the prediction platform Kalshi, traders now believe there is a 58% chance that the US and Iran will reach an agreement by 2027. In mid-April, bets on reaching a US-Iran nuclear deal by the end of June once exceeded 70%.