1. Will the US-Iran tense situation escalate further?

The essence of the May 8th Strait of Hormuz conflict is more likely a probing friction rather than a sign of full-scale war. The US claims to have intercepted Iran's "baseless attack," while Iran accuses the US military of violating the ceasefire by attacking oil tankers, with both sides sticking to their narratives. The most critical signal comes from President Trump himself: he clearly stated, "This is just a light tap, the ceasefire is still ongoing and effective," and emphasized that the US ships "were not damaged." The US Central Command also stated they have "no intention of seeking escalation."

This indicates both sides are actively trying to "cool down" the situation. Analyzing motives: the US military may aim to test Iran's air defense capabilities and the actual enforcement of the strait blockade—targeting strategic locations like Geshm Port and Abadan Port as pressure tests; meanwhile, Iran responds with counterattacks to demonstrate its resolve to defend sovereignty while avoiding crossing the red line into full-scale war. Key developments to watch include: the actual implementation flexibility of the April 7 ceasefire agreement, Iran’s formal response pace to the US’s 14-point plan, and the actual navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. If the blockade continues and parties fail to deliver on "opening" commitments at the negotiation table, small-scale skirmishes may recur.

2. Can Bitcoin withstand pressure and bounce back to $80k?

The recent dip below $80k (bottoming out around $79,300) results from a combination of geopolitical risk premium unwinding, profit-taking, and chain reactions of liquidations.

Since the April low of around $60k, BTC has risen approximately 37%, accumulating substantial unrealized gains. When Iranian officials reject some US proposals and negotiations become more uncertain, short-term speculative funds tend to cash out en masse, with about $327 million in liquidations across platforms in 24 hours, 72% of which are long positions—indicating leveraged-driven gains are being reversed. The $80k level has shifted from a support to a key resistance. If within the next 24 to 48 hours, BTC cannot regain above $80,600, the short-term control indeed shifts to the bears, with next support levels at $79,500 and $75,000.

However, there are two medium- to long-term supports: first, the exchange-held BTC supply has fallen to recent lows, with long-term holders increasing their share to 78.3%, and institutional buying (such as BlackRock’s ETF with about $62 billion AUM) still showing structural inflows; second, some Middle Eastern risk-averse funds are beginning to shift toward decentralized channels, providing new capital sources for BTC. Overall, $80,000 is currently hard to hold, but this does not indicate a trend reversal; the more likely scenario is higher volatility within a range in the near future.

3. Will tonight’s economic data lean bullish or bearish?

Tonight (20:30 Beijing time), the US April non-farm payroll report will be released, along with the University of Michigan consumer confidence index preliminary reading and the May one-year inflation expectations preliminary figure at 22:00.

A comprehensive judgment must consider multiple factors: on one hand, geopolitical tensions have just escalated, and spillover effects have not yet reflected in April’s data; on the other hand, high oil prices (US gasoline average price has reached $4.56 per gallon, the highest since July 2022) are beginning to suppress consumer confidence, with clear signs of cash flow pressure among low-income groups. The expectation leans toward a moderate to weak outcome—data that meets expectations may be seen as "not too bad"; but if the figures are significantly weaker than expected, the market may shift focus from geopolitics to economic fundamentals, with concerns about stagflation rising sharply. #美伊冲突再升级